Macedonia – a forgotten country?
That’s how it is. Life isn’t fair, and reality demands a
compromise. These are the words that Erwen Fouréré, the long-standing EU
ambassador to Skopje, a witness and occasional actor in Macedonia’s troubles,
addressed to his hosts, warning them that the time to reach a deal with Greece
over Macedonia’s name was fast running out.
A month from now the EU
will decide whether Macedonia, after five years of candidate status, will be
given the date for starting negotiations on finally joining the EU. In
Macedonia itself, however, there is a gloomy atmosphere of unfulfilled
expectations. It is as if the Macedonian government and public have come to
accept that Macedonia will draw the short straw in the ‘wrestling match’ at the
EU summit in June.
It is most likely, indeed,
that the setting of the date will again be postponed, hopefully until the end
of the year, less optimistically for an indeterminate period. The formal
explanation will be the slowing down, indeed end of reforms; but in reality it
is the failure to reach an agreement with Greece over the country’s name. The
conflict with which Greece has burdened Macedonia, and which until quite
recently was merely a ‘technical problem’ that did not affect Macedonia’s
progress towards EU and NATO membership, has in the meantime grown into an
‘unavoidable obstacle’. Or rather, into Brussels’s political ultimatum. It is
true that the issue of the name does not appear as a formal condition; but when
it comes to choosing between a state that already is a member (Greece) and a
state that wishes to become one (Macedonia), there will be no dilemma. Despite
sympathy for Macedonia and irritation with the Greek economic assault on EU
stability, Macedonia will get short shrift. The offence will be chalked up
against the weaker side, although everyone knows full well that the stronger
one, which sets the rules, has been playing a highly destructive game.
Though Brussels officials
hope for some turnaround by mid-June, its chances are nil. The Macedonian-Greek
negotiations on Macedonia’s name reached a dead end several months ago, so that
a change in the coming weeks would be truly miraculous. The long-standing
American UN mediator in this conflict, Matthew Nimetz, does not believe in a
sudden change either, and has been postponing the restart of negotiations. For
sure, at the beginning of the this year there was a hope that ‘Republic of
Northern Macedonia’ might, under certain conditions, be acceptable to both
sides. But it vanished the moment the Greeks ‘explained’ that the change of
name from Macedonia to Northern Macedonia would oblige the country to change
also its national identity, its language, its constitution, its national anthem
and its state emblem and flag – a recasting in fact of the whole of its history
and culture.
The Macedonians
interpreted this Greek ‘shopping-list’ in the only possible way – as the
introduction of a Greek protectorate. The idea consequently, and logically,
died even before it had been officially endorsed. A section of Macedonian
public opinion, and certain political circles in Skopje, were initially
positively inclined towards the name ‘Northern Macedonia’. But when the Greeks
upped their demands, the Macedonians responded by reviving the old idea of a
referendum on the name, the negative outcome of which is beyond doubt.
Greece responded to the
idea of ‘letting the people decide’ by accusing Macedonia of blocking its
‘cooperation’ and ‘good will’ in the search for a ‘mutually acceptable
compromise’. In fact, Greece is in no hurry (though one might think
differently, given the seriousness of its crisis), all the more so because it
has finally and without much effort won the support of EU leaders for its
irrational national campaign, despite the fact that its economic and financial
policy has brought into question the very survival of the euro and of the
European Union. Athens can allow itself the luxury of simultaneously relaxing
its chronic inter-state tensions with Turkey, thus winning the sympathy of
Brussels and Washington, and assuaging European frustrations with the
consequences of the Greek economic collapse. Turkey is more important to the
international community than Macedonia, and the Greek prime minister can
therefore afford to risk the wrath of Greek nationalists at his dialogue with
Turkey. The tightening of the screw on its ‘unreasonable’ Macedonian neighbour
comes as a recompense to the nationalists, at a time of real danger that the
domestic crisis might unite the social and nationalist revolts into a powerful
anti-government and anti-EU movement. This is why the so-called red line of
Greek national interests is being maintained against the small and weak
Macedonia, a line that Prime Minister Papandreas will not dare to cross.
But whereas Greece,
therefore, may be in no hurry to reach a settlement with Skopje (not least
because the very maintenance of mutual tensions causes serious internal trouble
for Macedonia), one would expect Macedonia itself to be keen to arrive at a
settlement that would unfreeze its current status as a forgotten country, and
put it on the path to membership of the EU and NATO. This, however, does not
appear to be the case.
The long and exhausting
‘war’ with Greece has created a situation of near-complete lethargy, with
elements of indifference. The economic crisis is deepening, investors are
avoiding the country as too risky, the social situation is increasingly
hopeless, reforms have practically ceased, the prospects for Euro-Atlantic
integration are receding – all this is creating anew a deep political crisis
characterised by growing tensions between the country’s Macedonian majority and
Albanian minority.
Instead of intensifying
diplomatic activity, the government headed by Nikola Gruevski (VMRO- DPMNE)
seems to have opted instead for a tactic of silence combined with anticipation,
guided by a strange logic that time is in fact on Macedonia’s side. The idea
being, it seems, that Europe will in time tire of Greek nationalist
belligerence and arrogance, if not because of the Greek tactic of
systematically undermining Macedonia, then because of the catastrophic effect
of Greek economic mismanagement on European stability. Pursuing a tactic of
‘mutual attrition’, Macedonian nationalism in the form of a ‘return to
antiquity’ has been offered as a response to Greek nationalism (though the
intensity of the search for a new ancient Macedonian identity has somewhat
diminished). Convinced that truth and justice is on its side, the government
appears no longer interested in finding friends and allies abroad, and it is
here that the main reason for the current near-total marginalisation of the
country’s international position should be sought.
An ideological war is
instead being waged against internal critics, with the government using its
media to indict ‘traitors’, those who ‘favour selling the national spirit and
dignity’ (i.e. argue for continuation of dialogue with Greece), and this is
turning the Macedonian political scene into an arena of permanent
confrontation. There is a real danger that, in the absence of a speedy internal
political agreement, Macedonia could easily revert to the situation that
pertained on the eve of the armed conflict between the authorities and mutinous
Albanians in 2001.
Prime Minister Gruevski
is no longer preoccupied with Athens, Brussels and Washington, but with the
fanning of domestic conflict in order to hold off the Macedonian and Albanian
political opposition and to create a suitably nationalist atmosphere for
winning a new mandate at the increasingly likely early elections. With this in
mind, the critics of the Macedonian government agree that it is, in fact, not
in its interest to reach a compromise with Greece. Gruevski’s coalition
government, involving the leader of the Albanian national community Ali Ahmeti,
is on the point of collapse, as both sides contest the Ohrid Agreement that
ended the war in 2001, the ruling party arguing that it gave too much to the
Albanians while the Albanians believe that federalisation of the state offers
the only way out of the crisis. The situation has become so confused that no
one in Skopje can confidently predict what will come first: early elections
with a new political configuration, or a new conflict between Macedonian and
Albanian nationalists.
Macedonia, which back in
the 1990s was a bright spot in the sea of Balkan troubles, appears today to be
losing a sense of orientation, having been left to itself through its own but
primarily through international fault.
In a situation of growing
external pressure on Macedonia to capitulate on the name issue, with Greece
sticking to its maximalist demands, and with Brussels irresponsibly willing to
sacrifice Macedonia by letting it drown in internal troubles and using it as
small change in Balkan trade-offs, few in Skopje can argue with any degree of
confidence that the European idea retains its earlier dominant appeal. The
growing impression is rather that the Euro-Atlantic enthusiasm is being slowly
and steadily exhausted.
Translated from Peščanik website by Bosnian Institute,
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